With a multiple conflicts raging around the world everyone and their dog have been let know of how things changed with the introduction of drones.
What used to be a rather dangerous activity of confronting the adversary with a direct fire (rifle, RPGs, ATGMs) within the line of sight, now possible beyond the line of sight. Moving undetected is difficult with some drones flying above you. Even a century-old howitzer is now a deadly weapon if its fire is corrected from a drone available for purchase in a supermarket near you.
When two armies fight, there is at least a line of contact, which can be protected by jammers and air defence, making drones targets too.
What I think drones will revolutionize next though is organized crime and terrorism. A quick preview of what becomes possible is on display in drug-cartel-controlled areas of Mexico.
Instead of having to confront police in a direct clash, now a nerd with a properly configured drone can take out SWAT squads and police outposts from kilometers away! And it's a lot of fun too! Filming it is basically automatic, then share it online, maybe even monetize on YouTube (well, maybe that would still be difficult)!
Now, there are so many possibilities! Unmanned drug trafficking for one, Prime Air Gun Delivery, coordination of operations, hunting down officials who haven't taken money to look the other way... Gangs can destroy police patrol cars if they enter areas where they don't want to see police. It doesn't have to be an all-out war to pressure police out of certain areas of cities or countries. Once the risk outweights police salary, police will dodge these areas. In fact, to be successful, gangs would refrain from escalating too much, but keep it dicey.
The problem for police here is that unlike howitzer (main tool of indirect fire in the past), which is bulky and cannot be used by gangsters, drones are much more difficult to deal with.
First of all, they are hand-held. A dozen can easily fit a trunk of a civilian car.
Drones can be hand-manufactured using over the counter parts. Some can be 3d printed.
It's difficult to track down drone operators. A drone operator can prepare their position in advance and use retransmitters or external antennas to conceal their location.
Drones can be used with all kinds of ammo and explosives. Buying a few VOGs or F-1s from a war-torn countries is probably easier than getting a burger!
Police doesn't operate out of fortifications. They have to be in the open, meaning that they become an easy target.
Finally, unlike armies, police has no contact line. They have to control territory, they have to allow people in and out. This means that they can't deploy jamming along the line of contact, they have to deploy jamming on a territory, which is x^2 of jammers and their operators compared to what would be needed on the front line. Some frequencies cannot be jammed because they are used by mobile carriers.
You might be wondering why the police in your city is not yet hiding in their police station building waiting to be killed by an FPV drone yet?
I think this has to do with level of organized crime strength. If you look at it from a point of view of a regular thug, there is nothing in it for you in blowing up a police car, because you're busy stealing, robing etc. But once you have a bigger organization, they can have a unit of drone operators which will support robbing with a drone surveillance or attacking incoming police cars. It becomes a sort of vertically integrated organization, which has actual revenue generation departments, intelligence and security units, forces to deal with police and government. It's happening in Mexico and it might spread anywhere if criminal organizations are allowed to grow and start investing in tech.
What used to be a rather dangerous activity of confronting the adversary with a direct fire (rifle, RPGs, ATGMs) within the line of sight, now possible beyond the line of sight. Moving undetected is difficult with some drones flying above you. Even a century-old howitzer is now a deadly weapon if its fire is corrected from a drone available for purchase in a supermarket near you.
When two armies fight, there is at least a line of contact, which can be protected by jammers and air defence, making drones targets too.
What I think drones will revolutionize next though is organized crime and terrorism. A quick preview of what becomes possible is on display in drug-cartel-controlled areas of Mexico.
Instead of having to confront police in a direct clash, now a nerd with a properly configured drone can take out SWAT squads and police outposts from kilometers away! And it's a lot of fun too! Filming it is basically automatic, then share it online, maybe even monetize on YouTube (well, maybe that would still be difficult)!
Now, there are so many possibilities! Unmanned drug trafficking for one, Prime Air Gun Delivery, coordination of operations, hunting down officials who haven't taken money to look the other way... Gangs can destroy police patrol cars if they enter areas where they don't want to see police. It doesn't have to be an all-out war to pressure police out of certain areas of cities or countries. Once the risk outweights police salary, police will dodge these areas. In fact, to be successful, gangs would refrain from escalating too much, but keep it dicey.
The problem for police here is that unlike howitzer (main tool of indirect fire in the past), which is bulky and cannot be used by gangsters, drones are much more difficult to deal with.
First of all, they are hand-held. A dozen can easily fit a trunk of a civilian car.
Drones can be hand-manufactured using over the counter parts. Some can be 3d printed.
It's difficult to track down drone operators. A drone operator can prepare their position in advance and use retransmitters or external antennas to conceal their location.
Drones can be used with all kinds of ammo and explosives. Buying a few VOGs or F-1s from a war-torn countries is probably easier than getting a burger!
Police doesn't operate out of fortifications. They have to be in the open, meaning that they become an easy target.
Finally, unlike armies, police has no contact line. They have to control territory, they have to allow people in and out. This means that they can't deploy jamming along the line of contact, they have to deploy jamming on a territory, which is x^2 of jammers and their operators compared to what would be needed on the front line. Some frequencies cannot be jammed because they are used by mobile carriers.
You might be wondering why the police in your city is not yet hiding in their police station building waiting to be killed by an FPV drone yet?
I think this has to do with level of organized crime strength. If you look at it from a point of view of a regular thug, there is nothing in it for you in blowing up a police car, because you're busy stealing, robing etc. But once you have a bigger organization, they can have a unit of drone operators which will support robbing with a drone surveillance or attacking incoming police cars. It becomes a sort of vertically integrated organization, which has actual revenue generation departments, intelligence and security units, forces to deal with police and government. It's happening in Mexico and it might spread anywhere if criminal organizations are allowed to grow and start investing in tech.