In open electricity markets, the complex interplay between supply and demand drives volatile spot prices, forcing wind farm operators and developers to consider not only energy production but also the selling price when estimating revenue. However, simulating concurrent time series of wind speed and electricity price with correct spatial and temporal correlations is challenging and computationally demanding, limiting its use during design optimisation.
In a recent paper, Bechmann and Quick (2025) present a new revenue prediction method based on the correlation between wind speed and electricity prices that is both inexpensive and easy to apply in existing wind resource assessment procedures. The speed-price correlation, named the ”energy value curve”, eliminates the need for time series and can be simplified to a linear function with only a single parameter.
A demonstration case shows that increasing price volatility in Denmark over the last 25 years has reduced the value factor by 15%, which is the ratio of the mean selling price to the annual mean electricity price. This revenue loss has traditionally been neglected. Bechmann and Quick (2025), therefore, suggest that traditional wind resource assessment methods adopt this new approach.
Bechmann, A, and J Quick. 2025. “Market-Driven Wind Resource Assessment.” Journal of Physics: Conference Series 3025 (1): 012001. https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/3025/1/012001.
Bechmann, A, and J Quick. 2025. “Market-Driven Wind Resource Assessment.” Journal of Physics: Conference Series 3025 (1): 012001. https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/3025/1/012001.