Cameron Parker

October 27, 2021

A Little SPAC Speculation

Matt Levine writes:

Ordinarily, there are two distinct important events in the life of a SPAC company, generally quite separate in time: One day the company is created, and then, probably years later, it announces a SPAC merger. Here … look, it’s ambiguous, but doesn’t it seem like the company was created to do the SPAC merger? It’s not that he started a company, funded it himself, got a team in place, figured out a business strategy, started developing the product, and eventually reached a point where he decided to raise public capital, so last week he announced a SPAC deal. No, it’s that he started the company last week with the SPAC deal. I suspect that the $293 million of SPAC money will be the first funding this company ever gets. That’s weird! 

Beautifully stated. Knowing what we know about Donald Trump, is there any doubt that this whole thing was conceived with the aim of getting in on the SPAC craze and raking in some profit?

Here's a set of predictions:

  • Truth Social never produces a product: 40%
  • Donald Trump and/or the SPAC sponsors will exit this deal in the next five years: 80%

These surely will be impacted by whether or not Trump becomes president in 2024. I haven't thought through the conditional probabilities enough. I hope to come back to them and see how I did.

I am uncertain, but I imagine a lot of MAGA true believers are piling into DWAC stock because they love Trump. If so, they are basically donating to Trump (plus a few other Wall Street fat cats for good measure) in return for shares of nothing.

Capitalism, baby.