Daren Smith

April 1, 2025

The Anti-AI Strategy: Why 1,000 True Fans Are Worth More Than Ever

Worried about AI replacing creators? Here's the counterintuitive truth I discovered while raising my film fund: As AI floods the market with content, the real value isn't in what you create—it's in who you connect with. The math behind this insight will transform how you build your creative business.

Most creators misunderstand the AI threat. They see it as competition for their creative output. And yes—AI already generates articles, images, and videos. Soon it will write novels and compose symphonies. But this technological shift isn't a threat—it's a revelation about what truly matters in creative work.

The real value was never just in the output. Creation is about joy, discovery, and human connection. When anyone can generate content with a single prompt, the creative output becomes commoditized. What remains valuable? The relationship between creator and audience.

Kevin Kelly captured this insight perfectly in 2008 with his "1,000 True Fans" theory: a creator needs only 1,000 people spending $100 annually to make a living. Now, as AI commoditizes creative output, Kelly's theory isn't just surviving—it's becoming the key to creator survival.

But how do you build these valuable relationships? It starts with understanding three crucial numbers:

The "rule of 20" assumes that 5% of your audience will purchase from you. Even more conservative is the "rule of 100," which is often more realistic when you're starting out.

Following the rule of 20, you'll need 20,000 leads to find your 1,000 true fans. These leads can be your:

  • Email subscribers (ideal)

  • Podcast listeners or YouTube subscribers (less ideal)

  • Social media followers (least ideal)

Let me show you how these rules play out in practice. Here are my numbers from the first quarter of 2025:

  • Website visitors: 3,182

  • New leads: 232 (7.3% conversion)

  • Customers: 12 (5% conversion)

  • Average order: $118

  • Total (non-investor) revenue: $1,416

These numbers might look modest. But they reveal something powerful about the True Fans theory: when you prioritize relationships over transactions, value emerges in unexpected ways.

But here's where it gets interesting: The "rule of 10" kicks in. About 10% of your customers will spend 10x more with you than your average customer.

In my case, the relationship-first approach transformed casual readers into serious investors. From that same email list of 232 people, several have become five-figure investors in my film fund. For every 50 people who join my list, 1-2 become angel investors ($50k or less). At scale, this means 100 engaged relationships could yield 5 major investors writing six or seven-figure checks—exactly what I need to raise a $10M film fund. No AI can replicate these kinds of relationship-based outcomes.

This shifts how we should think about building creative businesses in an AI world:

  1. Stop focusing solely on output (which AI can replicate) and start investing in relationships (which it can't)

  2. Calculate your "1,000 true fans" number: How many deep relationships do you need to sustain your business?

  3. Use the 20x multiplier to plan your outreach strategy

  4. Look for the 10% who will invest significantly more in your vision

The future isn't about competing with AI to create better content—it's about building deeper relationships that AI can't replicate. While others chase algorithmic perfection, focus on finding and nurturing your 1,000 True Fans. They're not just your audience; they're your future investors, advocates, and partners. And that's a position no AI can disrupt.

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