George Angwin, 28 January 2022

Yesterday’s Wall Street Journal had several articles about the unfolding drama along the eastern border of Ukraine. There were two themes: President Biden threatened vague responses if Russia’s Vladimir Putin continued his pressure to force Ukraine back into the Russian Empire, and Germany is continuing to put itself in thrall to Russian gas.

In a joust where one side’s weapons are words and the other’s are armored divisions, which side is going to back down? Mr. Biden seems to expect Mr. Putin to quail before a threat of NATO economic sanctions. Unfortunately for America and free societies everywhere, Mr. Biden gives us only speeches loaded with gaffs. Mr. Putin, on the other hand, moves divisions to the Ukrainian border. Timid speeches will have little effect on Mr. Putin’s efforts to recover parts of the late Russian Empire: Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Ukraine, Belarus, and much of Poland.

Meanwhile, Germans are crippling their electrical energy infrastructure by installing absurd amounts of wind and solar, with Russian gas and brown coal to fill in the gaps. But Germany is the alpha dog in NATO, whose response to Russian aggression will consequently be tepid. Moreover, Russia seems to be limiting gas production just as the peak consumption season is beginning.

But what about NATO as a military force? For 50 years after World War II, Europeans became accustomed to protection from the Russian bear by the United States. More recently, the United States has been reducing its commitment to NATO and pleading with the European members to bear their fair share. They have not come up to scratch, giving Mr. Putin another reason to believe that NATO is weak and will be ineffective in a confrontation.

This situation reminds me of Czechoslovakia and Poland in the late 30’s. The British Prime Minister, Neville Chamberlain (Mr. Appeasement) came to what he thought was a stable peace agreement with Adolf Hitler in 1938. Meanwhile, Germany was arming for the great push for lebensraum to the East. Six months later, in March 1939, Hitler’s divisions shredded Chamberlain’s agreement by moving into Czechoslovakia. The perceived weakness of Britain and France encouraged him to launch the main show against Poland the following September. Throwing Czechoslovakia and then Poland under the bus did not deter Hitler. Words were no match for armored divisions.

So what do I expect to come next? The patterns of recent decades will continue for a while, further confirming Mr. Putin’s guess that the West is too weak to thwart the manifest destiny of the Russian Empire. Eventually, a black swan event will shake up the situation, halting expansion of the Empire or bringing on its dissolution or destroying NATO’s opposition.

     George

Crescat scientia, vita excolatur.