As a researcher you’re suppose to love plans. Research proposals, grant applications, multi-year roadmaps - everything needs to be carefully laid out, step by step, with expected outcomes and detailed timelines. It all looks neat on paper.

But let’s be honest: most of the times, planning is just guessing. You might call it forecasting, roadmapping, or strategizing, but at its core, it’s a set of assumptions about what you think will happen. And the further out you plan, the bigger the guess.

You don’t actually know what your results will be. You don’t know if the method you’re relying on will hold up in the field. You don’t know if the data will make sense or if you’ll need to pivot halfway through. You don’t know if the funding will come through, if the team will stay the same, or if a global event will throw everything off course.

Yet, researchers spend months crafting detailed plans as if the future is predictable. It’s not.

This is especially true in today’s fast-moving scientific world. New discoveries, technological breakthroughs, and shifting research priorities can make a years-long plan obsolete overnight. A method you thought was cutting-edge might be outdated by the time you publish. A question that seemed urgent might lose relevance as new data emerges. Sticking rigidly to a plan in this environment isn’t just inefficient - it’s a liability.

Does that mean planning is useless? No. But it should come with a disclaimer: This is our best guess based on what we know today. Instead of obsessing over long-term plans, the better approach is to stay flexible - focus on the next concrete step, adapt to new information, and make adjustments as reality unfolds.

The best research isn’t the result of rigid plans. It’s the result of curiosity, adaptability, and paying attention to what’s actually happening instead of what was supposed to happen.

So plan if you must. But don’t worship the plan. Because in the end, planning is just guessing. The real work is in adapting.

— João