Ben Wilson

August 24, 2021

Stockdale, Infinite Game and Fighting Culture

The United Stated lost the Vietnam War for the same reason why persistently missed product releases destroys company morale. It adopted the wrong perspective in the face of a determined opponent.

In the book No Peace, No Honor, by Larry Berman, details the peace negotiations of the Vietnam War. He details the various negotiating positions each side took, objectives, negotiating points and tactics. The Vietnamese chose to play a long game where all they had to do was persist and eventually the US would quit and go home. This was played out on the battlefield and in the negotiating room.

Every time the US thought it gained ground, the Vietnamese would pivot, and return to course. The US changed its negotiation team as the years wore on. The Vietnamese kept the same negotiator who had previously beaten the French in the 1950s. The US changed its objectives repeatedly, until ultimately its objectives aligned with Vietnam's.

Those familiar with Game Theory will recognize that Vietnam played the Infinite Game. It decided it was going to win, and altered tactics to remain aligned to that decision. They kept unity of purpose as a result. Their morale did not flag to the same degree as the Americans. By contrast, the Americans played a Finite game. They set a deadline for victory and tried to hit the milestone. Each time the deadline was missed, they would grouse and complain, and set a new deadline...that they would miss.  Public opinion soured. Had the Americans adopted an infinite war stance, they might have prevailed.

Admiral Stockdale, a US prisoner of war during Vietnam, described the psychic and emotional impact of adopting a finite strategy against an infinite opponent. It is called the Stockdale Paradox. Those who died quickly in the POW camp were those who set deadlines for repatriation. With each missed date (Christmas, New Year's, Memorial Day), the slowly died of a broken heart--caused by hope. Those who thrived were those who hoped for eventual freedom and avoided deadlines. He said, "you must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end...with the most brutal facts of your current reality."

When you seek to change an organization, the culture will fight back. It operates by naturally adopting an infinite strategy. It will out last your change initiative. You have to adopt an infinite strategy to confront it. You have to choose to prevail regardless the time it takes. You have to play the infinite game.

A good leader recognizes the need to play the long game. This includes understanding your predecessor's vision and sustaining that part of the vision that delivers value to the organization.  When you had a capable predecessor, sustain their vision. You can do that without giving up your own desire to drive change. In fact, persisting that change vision is more likely to succeed as it has been fighting the culture longer than you have. This is especially true when your organization changes personnel every couple of years (like the military).

No matter what, stay the course. Keep faith that a well-considered change objective will prevail...if you don't fixate on the deadlines. And, don't let your subordinates get fixated on deadlines that continue to churn. That's how the culture beats you. It naturally plays the long game.

-- 
Ben 
In tenebris solus sto

About Ben Wilson

Ben Wilson, the brains behind the Postal Marines sci-fi saga, is a history buff with a soft spot for human nature and religion. After serving in the US Army, he's now stuck in the exciting world of IT project management, where he feeds off his customers' frustrations. Ben shares his Northern Virginia home with his wife, three kids, and two vicious attack cats. Don't worry, he didn't sell his oldest to the Core (although he may have considered it). His eldest has flown the nest and started a family of his own.