Nitin Ranjan

October 13, 2023

MarketQuadrant CW41/2023

Market Quadrant

⦿ Trend: Uptrend under pressure
⦿ Momentum: Positive but worsening
⦿ Breadth: Strong
⦿ Bias: Positive
⦿ Swing Confidence: 75

Market Quadrant (30).png


Trend → Uptrend under pressure


⦿ Majority of indices stay in an uptrend under pressure.

⦿ Realty index joins Consumer Durables, Infra, PSE & PSUbank as indices still in a confirmed uptrend.

⦿ There is still no index in a confirmed downtrend.

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Momentum  → Positive but worsening


⦿ Majority of the indices have positive but worsening momentum.

⦿ Realty is the only index with positive & improving momentum.

⦿ Indices with negative & worsening momentum are slowly increasing in number, with the addition of Healthcare & Pharma this week.

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Swing Confidence → 75

 
⦿ Both Nifty & Smallcap are in a weekly upswing. On daily charts, while Nifty is in an early upswing, Smallcap is in a confirmed upswing. Swing Confidence is now 75, which means that fresh swing trades can be taken, but with less than the maximum open risk.

⦿ Nifty stays stuck in a 1000 point range between 19200 to 20200. Any decisive resolution is beyond a breach of any of thes 2 levels. With a fresh swing starting, & the lower pivot not getting violated, a bullish outcome seems more likely.

⦿ Most indices are in an early upswing.

NIFTY_2023-10-13_21-25-59.png


Breadth →  Strong


⦿ Breadth as per moving averages: % of stocks above 10-day & 20-day MA are now well above 50. As long as % of stocks above 50-day MA are >50%, we are are above the bullish threshold. The % of stocks above 200-day MA stay comfortably bullish & sustainability 80+ for 6 consecutive weeks now.

⦿ Net breadth as per 4% advance & decline stays positive.

⦿ Market breadth volume (courtesy @swing_ka_sultan) is mostly sloping up & is in healthy territory of 0.5 to 1 now.

NIFTY_2023-10-13_21-22-18.png




Bias → Positive

Currently, the bias is positive.

⦿ Nifty has closed above the 50-day MA for 3-consecutive days.

⦿ Net New Highs stay positive for 3-consecutive days. 

⦿ On a lower timeframe, the 20-day NNH, after a brief shakeout of 1 day, has stayed positive.

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About Nitin Ranjan

Swing Trader | Growth Investor | Pine Coder