⦿ Breadth: Worsening, with lower timeframes oversold
⦿ Bias: Still bullish on long-term, but bearish on short-term
Trend
⦿ Most major indices (Nifty, CNX500, Midcap, Smallcap) are in confirmed downtrend
⦿ Only Power & Energy in confirmed uptrend
⦿ Media, Metals, PSUbank are in Uptrend under pressure
Momentum
⦿ Most major indices (Nifty, CNX500, Midcap, Smallcap) now have negative & worsening momentum.
⦿ Energy, Power, Consumption still have positive (but worsening) momentum
Market Breadth
Market breadth worsening on all timeframes. Higher timeframes continue to have bearish bias, while lower timeframes are now oversold.
⦿ 30% → 9% above 20 MA (highly oversold)
⦿ 57% → 30% above 50 MA (neutral)
⦿ 44% → 31% above 150 MA (bearish bias)
⦿ 47% → 35% above 200 MA (bearish bias)
% of stocks above/below 20& 50MA
The Ratio between stocks above & below 50MA is 0.5, while that for 20MA is 0.1.
The 10-day cumulative ratio for stocks above 50MA is 0.9 now. A value >2 is good for swing trades on the long side.
Bias
On a modified Stockbee market monitor, the short-term indicator of 13% up in 34 days is now negative, indicating that we are now in a short-term downtrend.
The intermediate 25% plus in a month & long-term metric of stocks 25% plus quarter stay positive.
4% up/down in 1 day
The 10-day cumulative ratio (10-DCR) between stocks up & down 4% in a day is now way below 2. Look for reversal setups from here, as a technical bounce is highly probable.
When market is in bearish phase, a fresh bull move starts when 10-DCR first time crosses above 2.
Primary Breadth Ratio
Overall, the market is bullish, as the number of stocks up 25% plus in a quarter is still greater than that down 25% plus in a quarter. The ratio between the two is the primary breadth ratio, which is now 1.2.
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