⦿ Nifty & Banknifty now have negative but improving momentum
⦿ Broader indices (CNX500, midcap & Smallcap) still have negative & worsening momentum.
Swing
SwingConfidence™ = 37%
⦿ Auto & FMCG indices are in confirmed upswing
⦿ Nifty, CNX500 & Banknifty are now in early upswing
⦿ Smallcap index is still not in upswing
Swing confidence helps us decide position size, & take sit-out in cash decisions in a quantitative way. It beomes 100% when major indices are in confirmed upswing.
Market Breadth
Market breadth slightly worsened from last week's levels. Higher timeframes still have bearish bias, while lower & intermediate timeframes are only mildly oversold.
⦿ 21% → 24% above 20MA (near oversold)
⦿ 21% → 15% above 50MA (near oversold)
⦿ 26% → 21% above 150MA (bearish)
⦿ 31% → 24% above 200MA (bearish)
% of stocks above/below 20& 50MA
The Ratio between stocks above & below 50MA is 0.2, while that for 20MA is 0.35.
The 10-day cumulative ratio for stocks above 50MA is 0.2 now. A value >2 is good for swing trades on the long side.
Bias
On a modified Stockbee market monitor, the short-term indicator of 13% up in 34 days stays negative for past 3 weeks, & the intermediate 25% plus in a month is negative since past 2 weeks.
The long-term metric of stocks 25% plus quarter is back to being negative this week.
4% up/down in 1 day
The 10-day cumulative ratio (10-DCR) between stocks up & down 4% in a day is now above 1.
When market is in bearish phase, a fresh bull move starts when 10-DCR first time crosses above 2.
Primary Breadth Ratio
Overall, the market is now bearish, as the number of stocks up 25% plus in a quarter is now lesser than that down 25% plus in a quarter. The ratio between the two is the primary breadth ratio, which is now 0.47.
That’s all for this week. If you'd like to know when I publish something new, just subscribe to my newsletter and you'll get the latest sent direct to you.
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