⦿ Auto index again tries a Rally attempt. This has been the strongest sector throughout this downtrend.
⦿ Other than Auto, every index is in a confirmed downtrend.
Momentum
⦿ Majority of indices (including Nifty, CNX500, Midcap & Smallcap) now have negative but improving momentum.
⦿ Auto is the only index with positive & improving momentum.
⦿ Metals, Energy, Power - some of the old leaders - now have negative & worsening momentum
Swing
⦿ Both Nifty & Smallcap are now in downswing under strain. Next logical step is an Early Upswing.
⦿ During the last downswing, there were 3 similar instances when, after entering downswing under strain, the indices went back into confirmed downswing.
⦿ Swing Confidence now is 12.5. Long-only swing traders should already be in all cash. Fresh trades have low probability of sustaining, & should either be avoided, or be taken with very small CAR (0.125%).
⦿ Auto, Consumption, FMCG & Pharma are in Early upswing, & thus ahead of the indices in terms of the swing state.
Breadth
Market breadth improving from last week's low levels. Lower timeframes still oversold, & higher timeframes quite bearish.
Bias
On a modified Stockbee market monitor, the short-term indicator of 13% up in 34 days stays negative for past 7 weeks, & the long-term metric of stocks 25% plus quarter is now negative for past 5 weeks. The intermediate 25% plus in a month is negative for past 2 weeks.
Overall, the market is bearish for past 5 weeks, as the number of stocks up 25% plus in a quarter stays lesser than that down 25% plus in a quarter. The ratio between the two is the primary breadth ratio, which is now 0.15.
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