We are in a confirmed downtrend for the 10th consecutive week now. During the 2020 crash & 2015-16 bear market, we had maximum 9 such consecutive weeks. Auto index, Consumption, FMCG & MNC are in a rally attempt. Everything else is deep red.

This is the 32nd consecutive week of negative momentum. Majority of indices (including Nifty, CNX500, Midcap & Smallcap) now have negative but improving momentum. Auto is the only index with positive & improving momentum.

Both Nifty & Smallcap are now in Upswing under strain. Swing Confidence now is 25. Long-only swing traders can take selective fresh trades with a 0.25% CAR. Conservative approach would be to still wait till we close above 15928, which would signal a confirmed upswing. 

Auto, Consumption & FMCG are in Confirmed upswing, & thus ahead of the indices in terms of the swing state.

Market breadth somewhat further improved from last week's low levels. Lower timeframes are still awaiting a fresh buy signal, & higher timeframes are still bearish.

⦿ 20% → 40% above 20MA (awaiting fresh buy)

On a modified Stockbee market monitor, the short-term indicator of 13% up in 34 days stays negative for past 8 weeks, & the long-term metric of stocks 25% plus quarter is now negative for past 6 weeks. The intermediate 25% plus in a month is negative for past 3 weeks.

Overall, the market is bearish for past 6 weeks, as the number of stocks up 25% plus in a quarter stays lesser than that down 25% plus in a quarter. The ratio between the two is the primary breadth ratio, which is now 0.23.

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