Nitin Ranjan

July 15, 2022

Weekly Index Check CW28/2022

Market Quadrant


⦿ Trend: Rally Attempt
⦿ Momentum: Negative but improving
⦿ Breadth: Improving
⦿ Bias: Bearish only on higher timeframes
⦿ Swing Confidence: 50 (Upswing under strain)

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Trend


⦿ Major indices (Nifty, CNX500, Midcap, Smallcap & Banknifty) are in a rally attempt.
⦿ Auto & FMCG continue to be in a confirmed uptrend.

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Momentum


⦿ This is the 34th consecutive week of negative momentum.
⦿ Majority of indices (including Nifty, CNX500, Midcap & Smallcap) have negative but improving momentum.
⦿ Auto, FMCG, Consumption & MNC indices have positive & improving momentum.
⦿ IT index has negative & worsening momentum.

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Swing


⦿ Nifty is in Upswing under strain, while Smallcap is in a Confirmed Upswing.
⦿ Swing Confidence now is 50. Long-only swing traders can take selective fresh trades with a 0.5% CAR.
⦿ Most indices are in a Confirmed upswing. IT index is in confirmed downswing.

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Breadth


Market breadth further improving & staying near overbought on lower timeframes. Intermediate timeframes very close to a fresh buy signal, but higher timeframes still bearish.

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Bias


On a modified Stockbee market monitor, the short-term indicator of 13% up in 34 days stays positive for 2nd consecutive week. The long-term metric of stocks 25% plus in a quarter is improving, but still negative for past 8 weeks now. The intermediate 25% plus in a month is now positive after 4 red weeks.

Overall, the market is bearish for past 8 weeks, as the number of stocks up 25% plus in a quarter stays lesser than that down 25% plus in a quarter. The ratio between the two is the primary breadth ratio, which is now 0.6.

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About Nitin Ranjan

Swing Trader | Growth Investor | Pine Coder