Rory McDonnell

December 20, 2022

Slow grind downwards

Still no signs of panic yet in the markets. Asset prices are slowly deflating without any major dislocations. The S&P 500 is down about 19% this year, the Nasdaq is down 29%. For comparison my portfolio is down 32% and I am far from fully invested (about 40% cash right now). 

Many of my big positions have taken a pounding, Tesla is down over 60%, Meta is down over 70% I think. It's only Berkshire Hathaway and Gold that seem to be doing ok when it comes to my holdings. I'm quite relaxed though and while it's not always pleasant to see my net worth get chopped like this, it is probably going to be a benefit for me in the long run as I hopefully can deploy some of my cash at lower prices.

Amazon is a recent example of a purchase I made, getting it at around 50% off its highs of last year. I am happy with the long term future of Amazon and would love to add more if the price drops further. Tesla is a long term holding of mine (11 years) which I would also be happy to add to should the right price come along. It's still a bit pricey at the current $150 per share, but I would look to start adding at a P/E ratio of 30 or less. This could either come about from continuing stock price decline, or increasing earnings. Perhaps a combination of both. 

I've been gradually easing into the market over the past 3-6 months and I expect to continue over the next 12 months. I feel that we are in for another bad year of declining stock prices in 2023, with things potentially starting to recover in early 2024. How low the markets go from here is anybodies guess. All I can do is determine 'fair value' for my existing stocks and any potential new holdings, and try to be a disciplined buyer if the market serves up any opportunities to buy over the coming year.

About Rory McDonnell

Hi welcome to my personal blog where I discuss all things investing, philosophy, books, podcasts, or anything else I have found interesting lately. Hope you enjoy.