I was reading an article on Nikkei this afternoon about the impressive GDP growth of Vietnam 🇻🇳 in 2025. 

Vietnam is rapidly emerging as the third economic powerhouse in Southeast Asia, after Indonesia and Singapore. As already observed months ago, the country has been a clear beneficiary of reciprocal tariffs. In 2025, exports expanded by 17%, reaching USD 475 billion.

The United States remains Vietnam’s primary export market, while imports are predominantly sourced from China, amounting to roughly USD 176 billion. Vietnam’s trade surplus with the U.S. has reached a record USD 133.9 billion, growing 28.2% year-on-year.

Importantly, tariffs have not only boosted volumes but have accelerated a structural upgrade in Vietnam’s export base. The country is moving away from low-value manufacturing—such as basic footwear—toward higher value-added production. Overall, Vietnam appears to have strong tailwinds for at least the next two years.

The key risk to monitor closely is regulation. The regulatory framework remains complex and could become a bottleneck, potentially slowing the remarkable momentum already demonstrated in 2025, when GDP growth reached approximately 8%.

- SL