I love chess. I played in tournaments from 1987 to 1989. I was addicted to chess in the 1980s. I followed the world’s best players by reading Chess Life magazine and the chess column in the New York Times. Computers were better than me in 1987 and getting better all the time. It was clear to everyone that eventually computers would be better than the world champion. In 1997 IBM Deep Blue defeated the world chess champion, Garry Kasparov. An era had ended. Man was defeated. Today your iPhone can easily crush Magnus Carlson.
In the early 90s chess experts agreed on two things: men would soon be displaced at the top of the chess pyramid, and professional chess would suffer. Logic said people would not pay to watch humans play chess if their computer was a better player. The experts were half right. Man was defeated by computers, but something unexpected happened. Professional chess flourished. People care about people and have favorite players. When two professional chess players play, the audience is shown a computer evaluation bar. The computer, which is much better than any human, gives an estimate of which player is ahead, which makes chess more interesting to watch. More people make a living playing chess today than at any point in history.
Over the last year I have heard famous people and friends/family opine on which careers will survive an approaching AI world. Chess history suggests that we can see change coming but the consequences can take surprising turns. Nobody knows what the future holds. It will be crazy and fascinating. Best to live in the moment and work on things which are always true.
I’ve spent a bunch of time thinking about an approaching AI era and its consequences on career paths. My conclusion is the details of how AI plays out are unknowable, so focus on things you can control. Enjoy the journey. If you undertake an adventure to mostly make money, try for a quick return. Better to work overtime driving a truck for two years and invest the extra income, than eight years of debt and toil to be a dentist. If you really want to be a dentist that is different. But if it is mostly to make money, you should reconsider.
If an approaching AI is dynamic and broad, it will change everything. An AI embodied in a humanoid robot can do everything better than an unmodified human. There will be no jobs that are AI resistant. It will be good at everything: doctor, surgeon, dentist, plumber, standup comedian, prostitute. You name it. No limits. It will be better than people the same way a 120 IQ person is better than an 80 IQ person. Therefore, we will merge with the AI and become cyborgs.
If I am wrong and AI doesn’t become better than people, then it doesn’t change the world much and should be mostly ignored. If I am right, we are headed toward a strange, fascinating, and hopefully wonderful new age. Abundance will be extreme. Enjoy the journey. We live in incredible times. My career advice: better yourself, pursue things you care about, fall in love with someone worthy of your love, be worthy of love, stay fit, read, think.