Q: What is the definition of a Technology Singularity?
A technological singularity is the idea that information technologies are improving at an exponential rate, and that rate is getting faster over time. Computers are getting smarter and smarter. We are approaching a point where computers will be smarter than people. Then smart computers can design smarter computers, which again design smarter computers, and so on and so on. When we reach this level, things get extremely weird, and it is very difficult to see beyond that horizon. Thus, the term singularity, a point where things are so weird that they cannot be described. The term comes from physics and mathematics. One second before the Big Bang is a singularity. All the universe’s mass exists at one point. Unimaginable.
Q: When will we reach a Technology Singularity?
A tech singularity will happen quickly after computers can do computer science research. When will this happen? Some people think it will never happen. They say, “Computers can’t think, God gave the gift of thought to people.” I admit that it seems impossible for computers to think, but I have an existence proof. The three-pound lump of meat in my head thinks, and that also seems impossible. Is there some law of physics which only allows meat to think? I doubt it. Computers will eventually think and do scientific research.
Computers doing research and improving computers sets off a powerful cycle. Putting an exact date on this is futile. I’m 55 years old. I want to know what the odds are a technology singularity will happen before I die. My guess is, more than 50% likely. Therefore, I’m planning on seeing the tech singularity. I want to bet on it.
Q: What are indicators that a Technology Singularity is approaching?
Our world will get trippy if a singularity is approaching. Nvidia running 250x in nine years is an indicator that has already been met. A few measurable indicators yet to be achieved include self-driving cars, extreme shortages of silicon, deflation everywhere, including cars and houses, robots that can earn money doing services like plumbing. Every time one of these indicators is met, the odds of the singularity happening in the next ten years increases. When computers can do computer research, then we are only a year or two away.
Q: How can I profit from an approaching Technology Singularity?
The last 30 years have been wonderful for founder run tech companies. An approaching singularity will accelerate this trend. Bet on founders. Winners will become bigger winners. Tesla and Nvidia can still climb dramatically over the next 10 years. Consider an options strategy on founder run growth companies.
Dream big. Take risks. Double down on winning ideas. Some say money will be less important in an abundance age. I disagree. We are wildly richer than 300 years ago, but it is still nice to be a one percenter.
A technology singularity will bring mass abundance. Real prices for goods and services will fall. The US Government runs the US dollar and wants low to moderate inflation. Deflation is normal when we have smart robots that can produce goods and services of many kinds. Hard money will climb in value, especially versus the Dollar. Bitcoin is a winner. It is currently priced as an option on the possibility it replaces the bond market. It can climb wildly in the intermediate term and then steadily against the Dollar until fiat money is abandoned.
Q: Should I fear a Technology Singularity?
Fear is the enemy. It makes you weak, scared, and timid. Plan and dream about the upside. Extreme outcomes are possible, including wonderful outcomes. The bad scenarios are also possible, but dwelling on them has no point. Everyone will be equally doomed in the bad scenarios, but active optimism could make you a spectacular winner in the positive scenarios. A.I. can make us all better in every sense of the word. We will have better health, improved eyesight, be stronger, faster, smarter, sexier, and funnier. Life will be an amazing adventure filled with trippy possibilities.