Golden run or gold rush?  Surely DHH remembers a time when programming was less accessible to the masses. I would not attribute the current downturn in developer jobs to unreleased tools like Devin. Finance drove the massive dot com layoffs and the end of ZIRP is driving these. 

But the writing is on the wall, things are changing. Type and memory safe languages changed things, as did cloud based hosting and architectures. Neither are ubiquitous in the codebase today.  

AI developed code might reach adoption at a faster rate, but at this point we still haven’t produced a fully AI developed app using the technology. Ultimately the industry needs to demonstrate a major win with an AI generated project before the next gold run can begin. 

But back to accessibility, where we’ll start to see the erosion of jobs. The easier to learn tasks will be automated away first and the net effect will be fewer developers entering the field. The more difficult tasks will still require more experienced or more highly trained developers for quite some time.  

Humans will desire to understand AI models and what they produce for as long as possible. And for now, this means more highly skilled and specialized jobs, not less.