First of all, I need to ask the Oracle: was the thief acting alone? It seems super unlikely, given the value of what they stole. Probably, there was one primary infiltrator who got into the tower and took the item, but I imagine they had some help getting out of the tower, and probably folks elsewhere keeping an eye out for a tail. Is this so? I'm calling it "a sure thing". d100 = 24, which is a yes.
So, the party is followed from Sora by some of the thief's accomplices, who are tipped off by the party having asked questions. I think it's likely they're going to attack them at some point along the road to Cumae. Let's do a scene check, then, versus chaos factor 4: d10 = 1. Altered scene!
So, perhaps the party is waylaid just outside of Sora? This makes sense, since it's still dark when they leave. I'll call it "likely". d100 = 37, which is yes.
I was still groggy from sleep when we took our leave of the inn and loaded our packs onto our horses. With great reluctance—and more than a few aches and pains—I climbed into my saddle, and we made our weary way west. It took no time at all to leave Sora behind, and in minutes we climbing easily toward the summit of the pass, navigating between piles of boulders and sheer cliffs.
Okay, there are five bandits here, waiting for the party. The question is whether or not anyone in the party is surprised. We'll give the bandits a single Stealth roll for the five of them (Dex+1). d20+1 = um... 4. Wow. These are some skilled boiz. They surprise precisely no one.
We were about fifteen minutes up the road when a sudden spill of stones went tumbling across the way, followed by a muttered curse from somewhere to our left. Tomi, leading the way, halted us and drew his sword in a single motion.
"Who's there?" he called.
I glanced nervously to either side of the dark road, and for the first time, I was glad to have him with us.
A shuttered lamp was suddenly unshuttered to our left, and another some forty feet ahead. From behind several piles of rubble stepped five cloaked figures, each with a drawn sword in their hand.

Okay, roll initiative. The bandits are fairly spread out, so I'm going to assign them each a separate initiative score:
M=22, #5=20, C=19, #2=19, T=17, H=16, R=15, #4=12, #3=11, #1=8
Here's the encounter map, with the bandits numbered, and the characters indicated by initials. This map shows how things stood immediately before the bandits came out of hiding.
And Mair goes first! She moves to a safer position and uses her action to create a Force Ballista (with her Eldritch Cannon feature).
As the men stepped forward, Mair maneuvered her horse backward, beside Heilyn's, and pulled something from within her robe. With a few deft motions of her hand she'd formed it into a tiny cannon no bigger than her fist, and dropped it to the ground.
About thirty feet to our left, one of the nearer bandits dashed, shouting, from one of the piles of rock and ran toward Tomi and Cari. The two lanterns cast his face in deep shadow, making of him nothing but an ominous silhouette brandishing a sword.
Cari was between the bandit and Tomi, and though Tomi tried to move around in front of Cari, he wasn't fast enough. The bandit's sword rose high as he struck at Cari on her horse.
Bandit has +3 to hit; Cari has AC 15. d20 = 12 + 3 = 15! The bandit hits! Damage is 1d6+1 = 6. Cari is down to 4 HP.
Cari cried out as the sword sliced into her leg, but she kept her wits about her. Backing away from the bandit, she raised a tiny golden finch on a chain around her neck and shouted "halt!" I felt my arms go all gooseflesh as the power of her command assaulted her assailant.
Her save DC is 13. Bandit has no wisdom bonus to speak of. Wisdom save is a straight d20, then and he rolls → 6! And fails the save.
Her magically-reinforced Command struck the bandit and he immediately stopped, going rigid and standing stiffly in place. Cari's breathing was harsh as she clutched at her wounded leg and maneuvered her horse deftly to the right side of the road and away from the other brigands.
Another of the bandits, one of those in front of us, also rushed toward Tomi, his sword raised high. Like his companion, he swung, hard, as he reached the horse, aiming for Tomi's sword arm.
Tomi is AC 16. d20+3 = 6. Safe!
Tomi, though, deftly avoided the blow, and brought his own longsword down and around in a vicious two-handed counterattack.
Tomi has +5 to hit with his longsword, versus AC 12. d20+5 = 22! Damage with two hands is 1d10+3, and his Great Weapon Fighting feature lets him reroll damage rolls of 1 or 2 when using both hands. d10+3 = 11! And the bandit only has 11 HP. He's now unconscious, and dying.
The blade cut through the bandit's leather armor, spinning the man around in a full circle and throwing him to the ground. He lay there, unmoving.
I was terrified. I'd never been in a situation like this before, and the violence of it shocked me. I looked to Heilyn on my right, but was startled to see only an empty saddle.
Heilyn has +7 Stealth. He's going to try to sneak around to the right and look for an opportunity to sneak attack. As it is dark, and he is toward the back of the party, we'll call it DC 10. d20+7 = 13. Good enough, though not Heilyn's best. Let's just say he's a bit rusty. Under cover of darkness, he'll use his turn to Dash into better position.
I looked around in a panic but could see no sign of him in the darkness. Where had he gone? And how had he gone so quietly?
I shook my head. There was no time to worry about Heilyn. If he'd run, he'd run, and there was nothing I could do about it right now. However, I could help Cari. I rode my horse quickly to her side, put my hand on her wounded leg, and muttered a simple Cure Wounds spell.
Reinold can cure 1d8+3 damage. Result = 3+3 = 6. Well, that effectively cancels the damage Cari took!
Cari gasped softly as the magic took hold, and after a couple of seconds she took a deep breath and patted my shoulder. "Thank you," she said. I nodded to her, feeling inordinately proud to have contributed something to this skirmish.
Meanwhile, the three remaining bandits were pressing Tomi hard, nearly flanking him. One of them, companion to the bandit that now lay dying on the ground, had rushed Tomi on his right and swung wildly, an inarticulate cry of anger and desperation on his lips.
Okay, another +3 vs AC 16. d20 = 13 + 3 = 16! Tomi gets hit, and hit hard. Damage d6+1 = 6+1 = 7. He's down to 5 HP.
The bandit's sword struck hard, slicing into a weak point in Tomi's chain armor and cutting him badly on his side. Tomi cried out, and began to realize his peril. Four bandits were pressing him from both sides.
Okay, that's the end of round 1! Same initiative order for round 2. Mair's up! This should be good.

I saw Mair make a subtle gesture with her hand, and the little cannon she'd constructed scuttled across the ground in front of us until the three bandits on Tomi's left were in sight.
Mair's Force Ballista makes a ranged spell attack, and Mair has +5 to spell attacks, versus the bandit AC of 12. She targets bandit #3. d20+5 = 13. Success! Causes 2d8 force damage = 11, which knocks the guy out! He's also pushed 5 feet back, knocking him into bandit #4. Let's ask the Oracle: does this knock #4 prone? I'm going to say it's very likely. Chaos rank 4, d100 = 41, which is a "YES".
There was a sudden loud bang, and the world blurred in a straight line between the cannon and one of the nearest of the bandits attacking Tomi. It struck him square in the side, bending him almost in half and knocking him backwards into one of his companions. Both bandits went sprawling to the ground.
With a growl, Mair then pulled her hand back to throw something at the bandit that Cari had stopped, and who still stood stupidly staring at the fracas around Tomi. In midair, the object burst into flame and sped straight at the man.
Fire Bolt. Mair makes a spell attack at +5 vs AC 11 (normally 12, but the guy can't use his Dex modifier). d20+5 = 22! Success. The bandit takes 1d10 = 6 damage. Bandit #5 is down to 5 HP.
The flaming projectile struck the bandit and burst in a blossom of sparks and smoke. He shrieked in pain. His hood fell back, revealing the haggard face and greying beard of a middle-aged man. He staggered a step, but could not break free from Cari's command. As soon as he regained his balance he again held himself immobile. Immobile or not, though, his cries and whimpers rose even above the shouts of his companions.
Bandit #5 would be next, but Cari's command holds him during this turn. Now, it's Cari's turn!
Cari raised a crossbow that she'd had strapped to the side of her horse, and aimed it at the bandit that had attacked her. The man's eyes grew wide as he watched her level the weapon and pull the trigger.
Again, the bandit is immobile and so can't use his Dex modifier. She only has +1 to hit, though, versus AC 11, so it's a 50% chance. d20 = 1. Oof! That's a fail. Oracle, shall we say her crossbow breaks as a result of this? I'll say it's 50/50. d100 = 84, which is a "no".
With a snap, the bolt flew from the weapon, but the darkness and chaos of battle confused her aim. She cursed as the bolt slammed against the cliffs and shattered.
Bandit #2 needs to make a death saving throw. d20 = 5, and fail! That's once.
Tomi, clutching his wounded side, nevertheless looked pleased to have two of his attackers out of the way, and smiled grimly as he spotted the bandit that Cari had commanded to halt. He removed his hand from his side, raised his longsword in two bloody hands, and sidled his horse over to the man. The bandit whimpered.
Tomi's got +5 to hit, versus AC 11. d20+5 = 16. Hit! That's d10+3 damage = 9. Bandit #5 is down!
I averted my eyes, not wanting to see the end, and only looked back when I heard the bandit's body hit the ground. As I looked up, a flash of movement caught my eye, to Tomi's right.
This is Heilyn, moving in for a sneak attack on bandit #1. He's got +7 Stealth, versus the bandit's passive Perception check of 10. d20+7 = 16. Success! He makes an attack with his rapier, with advantage, at +5 versus AC 12. d20 = 8, and another d20 = 1. Not great rolls! But the 8 + 5 is enough. The rapier deals 1d8+3, and sneak attack gives another d6, for 9 damage. Bandit #1 is down to 2 HP.
It was Heilyn! He moved with a speed I could hardly believe, silently flowing across the ground to come up from behind the bandit there. Heilyn's rapier flashed, catching the man in the back, and the man cried out as he spun to see who had stabbed him.
I swallowed, knowing I was all but useless in a fight like this. I had my staff, but the thought of charging either of the remaining two bandits made me feel ill. I could, however, treat Tomi's wound. Gathering my courage, I sped my horse over the twenty feet that separated us and put my hand out as I'd done for Cari.
Alright, Cure Wounds for 1d8+3 points healed, is 7. Once again, exactly enough to completely heal the wound!
Tomi gasped as the magic touched him, knitting his wound closed in a heartbeat. He looked over his shoulder and seemed surprised—even confused—to see that it was me, but he nodded and turned to see what targets remained.
In front of us, the bandit that had been knocked down by his injured comrade stood shakily to his feet and looked around with wild eyes.
Let's see if he runs. I'll have him make a wisdom check (DC 10) at disadvantage. He has no wisdom modifier. d20 is 4 and 17, so we'll take the 4 on disadvantage. He runs away! But he spent half his movement standing up, so he moves 15', and then spends his action on dashing, for another 30'.
With a shout of despair, the man threw down his sword and ran, moving up the street with all the speed he could manage.
#3 needs to make a death saving throw. d20 = 18. That's one success.
The remaining bandit, the one who had been stabbed by Heilyn, looked between Heilyn and Tomi as they flanked him, eyes as wild as his retreating companion's.
Let's try a morale check. Definitely at disadvantage. d20 = 11 and 6, so we'll take the 6. But does he run, or surrender? Flanked as he is, with Tomi on horseback, I don't imagine he feels like he'd be able to run very far. Oracle, does the man run? I'm going to call it very unlikely. d100 = 91, extreme no!
When he saw that he was the last of his companions standing, though, he cried out, dropped his sword, and fell to his knees, hands upraised. "Mercy!" He bawled. "Mercy! I am unarmed!"

Heilyn snorted as he cleaned and sheathed his rapier. "You're unarmed now," he said, panting.
Tomi cursed and leapt his horse over the prone bandit in front of him, chasing after the one who was running away.
I don't think there's any doubt that the horse could run faster, but the question is whether the bandit is able to find some shelter where the horse can't go, at which point the chase becomes a bit more even. Oracle, does the bandit find cover? Unlikely, the horse is coming quickly. d100 = 3—an exceptional yes!
Cari dismounted and began looking at the fallen men. "Should I heal them?" she asked, doubt in her voice. "I mean, they did try to kill us."
Heilyn snorted. "Well, the alternative is to stick a knife in each of them to make sure they don't come around on their own." When Cari glanced up at him, he shrugged. "Either we control if—and how—they recover, or we risk being surprised by them at some future point."
The bandit that had surrendered spluttered. "Mercy!" he cried again. "We was just doing our job. Truth! Don't let the boys die! You'll never see us again, I swears it!"
Mair rolled her eyes, but nodded. Her force ballista sat perched on her shoulder on two small, bird-like legs. "I'd rather not start killing unconscious men. But there's also no need to exhaust yourself, Cari. I doubt you could heal all three of them, anyway. Let's just bandage them up and get them stable, and then this fellow—", she indicated the captive, "—can get them help from the village." She eyed him dubiously. "Or not."
We set to bandaging the wounded bandits, and were just finishing when Tomi returned, empty-handed. He spat to one side, disgusted. "He slipped into a side-canyon up the way a bit. By the time I got off my horse to follow, he had disappeared."
"Well," Heilyn said. "That's unlikely to come back to bite us. Yeah?"
"Shut up, Heilyn," said Tomi.
Who was the bandit they captured? "Samlet Moor"
Cari squatted down to look their captive in the eye. "What's your name?" she asked, gently.
The man averted his eyes, looking abashed. "Samlet Moor, m'lady."
"I see," she said. "Samlet, what can you tell us about the man who escaped?"
He suddenly looked quite nervous. "Anwir?" he said, his voice quavering. "Anwir Camm? He's a tricky one, I think. He told me—"
"Yes?" Cari prompted.
"Well, he told me that I'd be rich if we did this job," he said, looking embarassed. "And he talked a lot about big ideas, said things about...about the king...."
"What did he say about the king?"
> Hmm! Good question. What did he say about the king? Let's take a look at the event tables: "overthrow enemies".
Samlet shook his head. "It...was a lot of words. I don't rightly recall. Something about the king's enemies? Overthrowing the king's enemies?"
"And where were those enemies?"
Samlet's eyes grew wide and animated. "Oh! Everywhere, m'lady! He said—" he clamped his jaw down, and looked embarassed again.
"It's okay, Samlet," said Cari. "You can tell me. What did he say?"
"Now, mind, this is what Anwir said, m'lady. I—" he laughed nervously. "I don't set no stock in it, myself!"
"Of course."
"He just said that we were going to stop some of the king's enemies this morning, right here. I guess he meant you all—" and he laughed again.
Heilyn shook his head sadly. "Samlet, let me assure you, that we are definitely not enemies of the king. We ride on a quest to stop those who are, and I suspect this friend of yours, this Anwir Camm, is one of them.""
Tomi snorted. "We should just kill them all," he said.
Samlet whimpered and started groveling again, but Cari put her hand on his arm and frowned at Tomi. "Don't you dare," she said. "We just got them all stabilized. Samlet will set them straight when they're healed up, won't you Samlet?"
"Oh, aye, m'lady. Aye, indeed!"
Tomi snorted in disgust and turned his horse around. "Well, let's get going, then. We've got a long ride today, and this little interlude has wasted precious time."
Though Samlet begged us to stay and help him and his "friends", we simply pointed him to Sora and suggested he find help there. We rode off with his pitiful cries following us, though fortunately he himself did not.
Okay, so the bandits were just from the back of the monster manual (25 XP each). Five of them would come to 25*5*2 = 250 XP, divided five ways is 50 XP to each of the party.
I think the chaos factor goes up to 5, with the escape of Anwir, and perhaps even with Samlet being left behind. And I'll add Anwir and Samlet to the NPC lists.
And, I guess, I should add a new thread: "Find Anwir". It's not something they're actively pursuing, but it's there.