November 14, 2021
Introduction and Disclosures
Interested readers might want to read The Art of Trading - Preview before reading this post. 1. Most of what is written in the posts that follow are from three sources. One is the books that I have read, the second is my experience as a trader and the third is my observations of clients’ trades over so many years of my being a market p...
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Disclosures / Disclaimers: 1. Nothing in this post or the ones that follow should be considered as trading advice. Please treat what is written as indicative, and not instructive. 2. Trading or speculating in the Indian stock market is essentially of three types, (1) day trading, (2) trading stock and index futures, and (3) via stock a...
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October 10, 2021
Are Stocks Too High?
Prologue: 1. The article from which the following is excerpted, was originally published in Fortune magazine on September 28, 1987. You can read the whole thing here: ARE STOCKS TOO HIGH?. 2. Black Monday (1987) - Wikipedia, talks about market volatility in the week starting on October 19, 1987. The above wiki link may be treated as a ...
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October 3, 2021
Affect Heuristic
This post is a continuation of my earlier posts. I suggest reading The Art of Selling - Preview, The Art of Selling - Winning the Loser's Game, The Art of Selling - Who is on the Other Side?, The Art of Selling - 10 Commandments, The Art of Selling - Coffee Can Portfolio, The Art of Selling - Psychology of Investing, and The Art of Sel...
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October 3, 2021
Do Colours Nudge our Investing Behaviour?
This post is a continuation of my earlier posts. I suggest reading The Art of Selling - Preview, The Art of Selling - Winning the Loser's Game, The Art of Selling - Who is on the Other Side?, The Art of Selling - 10 Commandments, The Art of Selling - Coffee Can Portfolio, and The Art of Selling - Psychology of Investing, before you rea...
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October 3, 2021
Psychology of Investing
This post is a continuation of my earlier posts. I suggest reading The Art of Selling - Preview, The Art of Selling - Winning the Loser's Game, The Art of Selling - Who is on the Other Side?, The Art of Selling - 10 Commandments, and The Art of Selling - Coffee Can Portfolio, before you read this post. After writing this part in this s...
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September 25, 2021
Coffee Can Portfolio
This post is a continuation of my earlier posts. I suggest reading The Art of Selling - Preview, The Art of Selling - Winning the Loser's Game, The Art of Selling - Who is on the Other Side?, and The Art of Selling - 10 Commandments, before you read this post. The Coffee Can Portfolio In 1984 Robert G. Kirby wrote a paper about portfol...
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September 19, 2021
10 Commandments
This post is a continuation of my earlier posts. I suggest reading The Art of Selling - Preview, The Art of Selling - Winning the Loser's Game, and The Art of Selling - Who is on the Other Side? before you read this post. 10 Commandments of Selling Stocks Like I hinted at in my very first post on this topic, there aren’t any books on ‘...
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September 11, 2021
Who is on the Other Side?
This post is a continuation of my earlier posts. I suggest reading The Art of Selling - Preview and The Art of Selling - Winning the Loser's Game, before you read this post. Who is on the Other Side? Does the person on the other side of the trade matter? Why can’t we buy and sell without really caring for ‘who is on the other side of t...
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September 4, 2021
Winning the Loser's Game
In the last post, I said that the selling decision matters more than the buying decision. For those who haven't read the earlier post, it might be a good idea to do so, before you read this one. Click, The Art of Selling - Preview to read the earlier post. So, why does the selling decision matter? By the time you finish reading this po...
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The prevailing wisdom seems to be that: it never hurts to book a profit. To me that seems to be pretty dumb, and in my opinion, it almost surely isn't the way one should arrive at a selling decision. If you were to Google or do a search on Amazon using the words in the title of this blog post, you wouldn't get any meaningful content. I...
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May 29, 2021
Rule Breaker Investing
Since, I started my investing advisory cum brokerage business, things have changed rapidly (they seem to keep on changing all the time). Ever since the internet made its presence felt in the brokerage business, there have been two business models in the investment world that have proved to be revolutionary. These are the subscription b...
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April 18, 2021
Infy Buyback - What's Different This Time
(Disclosure: I am long Infy, so readers may consider my views as biased) Before I explain what is different about the latest Infy buyback, I think it is necessary to understand what is meant by a stock buyback. Unfortunately, the concept has been butchered in India and the regulator is directly responsible for the misuse of the concept...
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April 14, 2021
Fooled by Randomness - Investor Expectations
I have written earlier about Expectations Investing. I think I missed out on a related feature. I didn’t write about investor expectations and that is what this post is about. At the end of the financial year 31st March, 2020, the yearly returns from the Nifty 50 were skewed to the negative side; reason being the benchmark hit its nadi...
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April 6, 2021
The 'S Curve' and Expectations Investing
When we are buying or selling a stock we are indirectly making a forecast of what we expect the price will be in the future. But, the time horizons for these forecasts, differ from one investor to another. And, time horizons can stretch from a couple of hours to a couple of years. Irrespective of the time horizon, there is an element o...
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April 1, 2021
When NOT to Buy - Sideways Markets
It is tough to ignore the fact that the Nifty 50 has roughly doubled from the lows that it hit one year ago. During this period, a strategy of buying the dip has given excellent returns. That doesn’t mean that this ‘buying the dip’ strategy will work in the future as well. A lot of ink is spilled on words like, ‘bull market’, and ‘bear...
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March 31, 2021
Buy Low & Sell High
By definition anyone who invests in stocks has one common objective. He or she wants to buy low and sell high. Some investors want to sell first, and then buy back what they have sold at a cheaper price. Yet, more often than not, we end up buying high and we want to sell when the stock that we have bought climbs even higher. And when t...
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March 14, 2021
Are we in a Stock Market Bubble?
Readers who want to know more about the definition of a stock market bubble, should click and read this before reading further: What is a Stock Market Bubble? So, what is the answer, to the rhetorical question: Are we in a Stock Market Bubble? There can be four ways to answer this question: 1. Yes 2. No 3. I don’t know 4. I don’t care ...
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March 14, 2021
What is a Stock Market Bubble?
We live in the Information Age and the signal to noise ratio is abnormally low. There is far too much noise, and for the most part there is no signal. Moreover, the reporting about the daily happenings in the Stock Market has acquired a cult status. We are in an environment, where anyone and everyone opines about the future direction t...
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March 12, 2021
Winning the Losers Game
To view this post in your browser or to share it click Winning the Losers Game. To subscribe click Subscribe. When we participate in the stock market, we are either buying or selling a stock. There are two parties to the transaction. When we buy a stock, someone has sold it to us and when we sell a stock, someone has bought it from us....
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March 10, 2021
Insider Trading - Is SEBI sleeping at the wheel?
To view this post in your browser and share it, you can click Insider Trading - Is SEBI sleeping at the wheel? To subscribe to future posts, click Subscribe. In the book titled, The Little Book that 'Still' Beats the Market the author Joel Greenblatt has hinted at what is meant by an investing edge. In his words: “Choosing individual s...
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March 6, 2021
Tata Motors DVR and Tata Motors - Arbitrage Opportunity
A bit of perspective about the two instruments is necessary for readers to understand this post. What are DVR's? 1. DVR shares are shares with Differential Voting Rights. The holders of Tata Motors’ DVR shares can cast one vote for every 10 shares held. The holders of the 'normal' Tata Motors Equity shares are entitled to one vote per ...
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